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Recognizing the future of mobile telecom development

Posted: 05 Sep 2003 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:mobile phone? mpeg 4? telecom? camera? java?

Although there are already about 240 million units in use in China's mobile phone market, I think there is still some room for growth. The peak point should be around 400 million units. Within a predictable period of time in the future, the development priorities for cellphones should be (in descending order): color screen of 64K and above, camera and Java features, and MPEG-4 decoding. This means that mobile phones should have some video recording and playing capabilities.

Audio and video content does not have to be downloaded through wireless Internet. These can also be downloaded through a PC, provided the mobile phone has a big memory card. This is another trend that is expected to be the focus of future development, especially before the end of next year. The integration of 802.11x features in mobile cellphones is another possible trend, although currently there exist some barriers, such as high power consumption and short coverage.

During the next 2 to 3 years, 2.5G cellphones with 802.11x features can easily satisfy the demand of the mobile communications market. There probably won't be any real need for 3G in the China market until 3 years from now. The transition of cellphones from 2.5G to 3G is inevitable, but the main cause isn't be the need for Internet-based multimedia data transmission, but the pressure to expand network capacities. However, it's hard to tell when 3G can be commercialized in the China market, because this will depend on the development of the market.

Although there will be a high growth period for the mobile phone market in the next few years, this market has already come to a very high point at present. As a result, it has become a switch-centered market and in 3 to 4 years, the growth will gradually flatten out. However, existing wireless platforms will give rise to various types of wireless terminals and application markets. For example, in the future people can use mobile phones to remotely monitor their homes and control their appliances over the Internet, while MP3 and CD players can be used for voice communications, and toys can download multimedia A/V contents from the Internet anywhere and anytime.

We can therefore conclude that the wireless communication industry is still in its infancy, and the focus of future development will move toward wireless terminals.

- Xiaobo Li



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