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August chip market average to hit $18 billion, says analyst

Posted: 04 Oct 2004 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:handelsbanken capital markets? intel? world semiconductor trade statistics? chip? semiconductor industry association?

Handelsbanken Capital Markets predicted Tuesday (Sept. 28) that the worldwide chip sales figures for August 2004, due to be published in early October as a three-month average by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, would be $18 billion. The total would be flat with the equivalent three-month average for July, but up 32.7 percent compared with the same figure in August 2003.

That growth, seemingly robust, nevertheless represents a softening of market growth as it compares with July 2004 year-on-year growth of 37.9 percent, as calculated by the Semiconductor Industry Association in September.

With actual worldwide chip sales recorded by the SIA as $20.7 billion in June and $16.46 billion in July, Handelsbanken's prediction implies actual worldwide chip sales in August of $16.84 billion, a 2.3 percent sequential rise and a 23.6 percent increase from the actual sales of $13.62 billion, recorded by the SIA for August 2003.

The world's semiconductor industry associations put out sales reports as three-month moving averages of monthly sales activity to smooth out variations due to companies' monthly financial calendars.

"Intel's processor sales should be better than in July when they were very weak. Handset chip sales should slip slightly after a significant drop in July. The Chinese and maybe even Samsung bought too many handset chips in Q2," said Bruce Diesen, an analyst with Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a business unit of Svenska Handelsbanken AB.

Diesen said Handelsbanken was sticking to its recently updated predictions for world chip sales of 25 percent annual growth in 2004 and 7 percent annual growth in 2005.

- Peter Clarke

Silicon Strategies

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