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Dataquest issues 2004 EDA market report

Posted: 08 Dec 2004 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:eda? rtl? cadence? synopsys? coware?

The lack of new 65nm and 45nm tools will slow revenue growth in 2004 and 2005 and the EDA industry will report $4.2 billion in revenue for 2004. These are some of the predictions from Gartner Dataquest's newly released 2004 Market Trends report.

In the 95 page report, which is based on 2003 EDA market numbers, Gartner's EDA research staff said that in 2003 user tool budgets increased only 15 percent instead of 20 percent that was typical in the mid-'90s.

Chief analyst Gary Smith said that the forecast was also "constraint driven."

"That means, in this case, the 65nm and 45nm tools are not available from the EDA vendors so the users are spending that money on developing in-house tools," said Gartner Dataquest chief EDA analyst Garty Smith. "We, at Dataquest, therefore need to guess when the commercial tools will be available and which ones at what time."

According to the forecast, the electronic system-level ESL tool market did not accelerate as fast as previously predicted in 2003, which adversely affected the health of EDA's largest market, Computer Aided Engineer (CAE).

"Gartner Dataquest reports that in 2003, RTL sales were flat, and sales of gate-level and miscellaneous tools were down," the report states. "The real surprise was that the ESL market took a major hit. Gartner Dataquest expected a continuation of the rapid growth that was seen in 2002."

"This is not good news. Without a significant investment in the new methodology, major growth will not occur in the CAE market. We have forecast a 16.4 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for CAE, but without some new tools in the market, this forecast could be much lower."

The report states that Cadence and Synopsys each owned 28 percent of the ESL Design and simulation market share, while CoWare owned 26 percent. Meanwhile, Gartner Dataquest reports that Verisity lead "ESL Test and Verification" market share with 67 percent of the market, followed by Synopsys with 17 percent, Forte with 9 percent and Cadence with 7 percent.

In the hotly contested implementation tool space also known as the RTL-to-GDSII space, Cadence and Magma gained share, so the market is now evenly split between Cadence, Synopsys and Magma, the reports states. Cadence and Synopsys had 35 percent market share, while Magma had 30 percent market share.

The report states that Si2's release of Open Access and Cadence creating a flow that interoperates with the database was the big news in implementation tools in 2003.

"Many customers were waiting for that to happen before making their purchases, and Cadence's increase in market share showed this," the report states. "Synopsys suffered as a result of not having its 65 and 45nm tools ready. The results were record growth for Cadence and virtually no growth for Synopsys and a tie for the No. 1 spot with 35 percent market share each in 2003."

The report states that Cadence has strength with the mainstream market, Synopsys with power users and that Magma Design Automation, "because of the productivity gains that Magma's tools offer, can sell into both markets."

The firm expects 15 percent growth in the implementation tool category until new tools are introduced. "Then there will be accelerated growth that will bring the five-year CAGR to 21.9 percent," the report states.

The report also indicates other notable market share swaps. According to the report, Synopsys yielded the market share lead to Cadence in formal verification. The revenue year over year in formal verification dropped 21.2 percent, the report states.

Meanwhile, Synopsys jumped from third in 2002 to a commanding lead in 2003 in the signal integrity space, the report states. Synopsys in 2003 had 46 percent market share to Cadence's 38 percent, Sequence's 9 percent and Quantic/EMC's 7 percent.

Mentor also is building on its market share lead in DRC/LVS. According to the report, Mentor owned 49 percent of the market, Cadence 27 percent and Synopsys 23 percent of the market, which the firm predicts will be a $317 million market by 2003.

The firm also reports that Synplicity pulled away 14 more market share percentage points from Mentor Graphics in FPGA synthesis giving it 58 percent of the market to Mentor's 32 percent of the market.

- Mike Santarini

EE Times

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