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PC market still strong despite flat US growth

Posted: 28 Dec 2006 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:PC? computer? IDC?

Worldwide PC shipments grew 9.1 percent in the third quarter (3Q) despite no growth in the United States, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker report.

"Growth in PC shipments remains strong despite slower growth in the U.S. in Q3 and in Europe and Japan in the second quarter," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "The market is moving toward portable PCs and emerging markets even faster than expected. While growth in these areas is welcome, the outlook for mature markets is becoming more conservative." Growth projections have been lowered by roughly 1 percent through 2010; however, IDC continues to expect double-digit growth through 2008, with growth slipping below 9 percent in 2009 and 2010.

Total PC shipments in the U.S. remained flat year-on-year in the third quarter vs. more than 5 percent growth in the first half, and roughly 10 percent annually for 2003-2005. IDC noted the commercial segment showed weaker demand than the consumer sectorindicating factors other than the release of Vista impacted the market.

The slower growthreflecting a mix of poor vendor performance and a slower pace of replacementsreduced growth forecasts for U.S. PC shipments over the next three quarters to low single digits. Growth will return to nearly 10 percent in the second half of 2007, due to slower growth this year. Volume projections for 2007 remain lower than prior forecasts. Longer term, growth should remain near 8 percent from 2008-2010 as replacements and technology evolution, including adoption of portables, Vista and new form factors, drive growth.

Outside the U.S., 3Q shipments were up 13.5 percentin line with projections for 2006 and 2007. Although growth projections fall below 10 percent for 2008-2010, the largest change in the forecast was a reduction of less than half a percent growth in 2009 with other periods almost unchanged.

"The third quarter reflected slower growth in desktops that will continue to constrain the market," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC's VP, Clients and Displays. "However, more replacements beginning in late 2007 and increasing specialization in designs will support higher growth down the road."

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