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Report: China, India to lead mobile market growth by 2011

Posted: 23 Apr 2007 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:mobile broadband? mobile market? VoIP networks?

A telecom report from Global Insights found that China and India will remain the world's growth engine for wireless services, with 60 percent of the 1.2 billion predicted new mobile subscribers over the next five years. The report compared the world's 20 leading developed and emerging markets between 2006 and 2011, and predicts that market penetration of wireless services will grow from 34.8 to 69.1 percent in China and from 13.4 percent to 31 percent in India.

According to the report, China will outpace the other 19 markets in terms of broadband growth, accounting for more than one-third of the 350 million-plus new broadband subscriptions anticipated over the next five years. By 2011, China, with broadband revenues of more than $19 billion and four times the subscribers, will surpass Japan as the world's second-largest broadband market. However, the United States will maintain its position as the world's largest mobile and broadband market by revenues over the forecast period.

"The bulk of the revenues for the sector will still come from the developed markets. Another notable conclusion is that the so-called death of the landline has been overstated, even if traditional landline revenues will take a massive hit," stated Julian Watson, director of Global Insight telecom products and author of the report, 'Substitution Shakes Up the Telecoms Sector.'

The report also stated that more than $50 billion in revenues will be lost world-wide over the forecast period due to fixed-line subscriber declines and the migration of voice traffic to mobile and VoIP networks. A 4.5 percent decline is also predicted in traditional fixed-line accesses as the growth in the China and India markets fail to offset the erosion of traditional accesses in markets like Europe, Japan and South Korea. Europe has already seen extensive migration of accesses from fixed lines to mobile.

"Primarily as a result of substitution, the next five years will see a fundamental shift in the revenue make-up of the global telecoms industry. In these 20 markets, fixed-line's share of total telecoms revenues will collectively fall from 39 percent in 2006 to 21 percent in 2011; while by the end of 2011, mobile will account for over two-thirds of total telecoms revenues in those markets," Watson said.

The report is produced by Global Insight's new Telecoms Intermodal Forecasting Service, an international intermodal/convergence forecasting service for the telecom industry. The service initially covers 20 markets including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Russia, Spain, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Canada, and the U.S., with additional markets to be added.

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