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IC Insights stands by 9% market outlook for 2008

Posted: 26 Mar 2008 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:IC Insights forecast? market growth? 2008 outlook?

IC Insights is sticking with its forecast of 9-percent IC market growth for all of 2008, but has said that the Q1 sequential decline in the market is likely to reveal more about the state of the 2008 market.

The market research firm's current forecast is based on the expectation that the IC market will decline 4 percent Q1 08/Q4 07, declining another 2 percent in Q2 08/Q1 08, increasing 15 percent in Q3 08/Q2 08, and growing 3 percent in Q4 08/Q3 08.

The lower the sequential drop in Q1, the worse the prognosis for the market in 2008 as a whole. If a recession has hit the United States and other global regions also see their economies slowing throughout 2008, then the IC market may actually decline in 2008, a rare event in the history of the semiconductor market.

In this scenario, IC Insights believes the market could drop 9 percent in Q1 08/Q4 07, followed by a 4 percent decline in Q2 08/Q1 08, then 10 percent growth in Q3 08/Q2 08, and then ending the year with a 3 percent decline in Q4 08/Q3 08. The result would be total IC market decline of 3 percent for the year.

The IC industry has posted negative growth rates in 1975, 1985, 1996, 1998 and 2001. In those years, the Q1/Q4 IC market displayed at least a 9-percent decline: 1975, -13 percent; 1985, -18 percent; 1996, -9 percent; 1998, -10 percent; and 2001, -20 percent.

If the sequential decline in the Q1 08/Q4 07 IC market is 9 percent or worse, IC Insights believes that the 2008 IC market would be on pace to register a negative year. However, the research firm is sticking with the current growth outlook of 9 percent, at least until complete Q1 08 results become available, typically in the last week of April.

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