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Gartner revises Asia-Pacific semi forecast

Posted: 09 Oct 2008 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:semiconductor? IC revenue? Asia market forecast?

Gartner Inc. has made modifications in its 2008 forecast for revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific semiconductor market to 5.2 percent from 6.4 percent, due to macroeconomic factors and poor visibility.

"Total IC revenue from the region achieved $149.3 billion in 2007 and is expected to rise to $157.1 billion this year," Gartner said. The firm anticipates a CAGR of 6.3 percent for chip revenue in the region by 2012, expecting growth of 8.2 percent in 2009; 8.4 percent in 2010; 2.5 percent in 2011; and 7.2 percent in 2012.

Gartner slammed worsening global macroeconomic situations that further eroded consumer confidence for the 2008 forecast revision. The firm said in the coming months we can see signs of a worldwide slowdown in electronics, which in turn can result in a direct negative impact on semiconductor sales.

Growing risks for China, HK
"Growth in the China/Hong Kong semiconductor market is seen to be lower than emerging markets like India and Vietnam until 2012," Gartner said. "The CAGR in the China/Hong Kong semiconductor market from 2007 to 2012 is expected to be 7.1 percent, accounting for 61.1 percent of the total Asia-Pacific semiconductor market," the firm added.

Meanwhile, it noted that India is expected to have a CAGR of 19.1 percent, and the other nations that comprise the Asia-Pacific region will grow by 18.7 percent.

"India is seen to attract more investments from global electronic makers, which will drive significant revenue growth in IC operations," Gartner said. "Markets like South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are expected to experience downturn in their semiconductor consumption revenue as electronic equipment manufacturing continues to shift to more affordable destinations to stay competitive," it added.

"Vietnam, the primary driver of growth in the "other Asia-Pacific" category, has become increasingly bankable to global electronic equipment manufacturers and IC vendors, and most likely to emerge as the next major market in the region's electronics industry," Gartner said.

- Dylan McGrath
EE Times

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