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ABI: Ultramobile device market to hit $27B in 2013

Posted: 15 Oct 2008 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:ultramobile device? mobile Internet device? ultramobile PC?

The fledgling market for ultramobile devices (UMDs), which includes ultramobile PCs, netbooks, and mobile Internet devices (MIDs), is already complex, and will become more complicated as it grows. A few salient forecast numbers may serve to guide vendors and investors as they negotiate this tricky landscape.

According to ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis, "Total revenues earned by vendors in the UMD market are expected to increase from $3.5 billion in 2008 to nearly $27 billion in 2013."

This year, retail sales account for only 14 percent of shipments, while UMDs provided by mobile operators stand at nearly 30 percent; the balance are sold directly by manufacturers. Over five years, however, that distribution mix will change significantly. Operators currently subsidize UMDs for the sake of their potential services revenue, but they would prefer not to. By 2013, only 20 percent will be operator-provided, while retail sales are expected to account for 75 percent.

In 2013 more than half of all UMDs will have x86 processors at their heart (largely Intel's Atom), with the balance based on ARM processors. When it comes to OS, Linux will outnumber Windows devices by two to one across all UMDs in 2013, despite the higher return rate for Linux products (compared to Windows products) experienced by netbook vendors today.

Some MIDs will offer cellular voice services. "MIDs without cellular voice will be seen by users as 'companion devices'," says Solis. "They will be used in addition to mobile phones and not necessarily carried at all times. Cellular voice-enabled MIDs, in contrast, will be able to replace phones entirely; they will become the new high-end smart phones."

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