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Outlook: TV industry faces difficult '09

Posted: 19 Dec 2008 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:TV industry 2009? shipment forecast TV? revenue TV LCD?

With the ongoing economic turmoil unlikely to improve in 2009, DisplaySearch has dramatically revised its TV market forecast for 2009, especially for the fastest-growing LCD TV category. As shown in the DisplaySearch Q4 08 Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, worldwide revenues are expected to fall year-on-year for the first time since LCD TV was launched in 2000.

The key factors are reductions in forecasted TV prices and revised forecasts for year-on-year shipment growth for LCD and PDP TVs in 2009, down by 7 and 6 points from previous, respectively. LCD TV revenues are forecast to fall 16 percent year-on-year to $64 billion in 2009, and total TV revenues will fall 18 percent year-on-year to $88 billion. DisplaySearch expects that 2009 will be the most difficult year yet for the TV industry and supply chain.

Several key findings from the report have been revised:

This market segment is expected to reach 102.2 million units in 2008, which would be 29 percent year-on-year growth; this is a reduction of 3.6 million from the Q3 08 forecast for 2008. In 2009, the LCD TV market is forecast to reach 119.9 million units, for 17 percent year-on-year growth; this has been reduced by 11.5 million units from the Q3 08 forecast for 2009.

Unit growth in developed regions such as Japan, North America and Western Europe will be just 2 percent year-on-year, largely due to the impact of the economic crisis. The market research firm forecasts that LCD TV growth in emerging regions will be 45 percent year-on-year in 2009, lower than the 68 percent year-on-year growth in 2008. As CRT TV penetration in these emerging regions is 60-70 percent, the shift to FPD TV continues to be driven by price reductions.

Plasma TVs
PDP TV is expected to grow 24 percent year-on-year to 13.9 million in 2008, largely unchanged from the Q3 08 forecast for 2008. This segment is expected to grow 5 percent year-on-year in 2009, to 14.6 million units, reduced by 5 percent from the Q3 08 forecast for 2009. This is primarily due to the rapid decline in prices of 32-inch LCD TVs. Another factor is the smaller number of PDP players in the market as a result of aggressive pricing from the top PDP TV brands.

Revised TV revenues by technology

DisplaySearch's total global TV forecast is 206.4 million units in 2008, up 3 percent year-on-year; 2009 shipments are forecast to be 205.3 million units, down 1 percent year-on-yearthe first time in recent memory that there has been a drop in unit shipments.

In addition to unit reduction, the revenue decline in 2009 will affect the TV supply chain in 2009. Without revenue growth, top brands may aim to increase their market share to maintain revenue, causing challenges for lower-tier players. TV brands, as well as panel manufacturers and material suppliers, will need to aggressively increase 1,080p penetration (even for 32-inch and 37-inch sizes), and accelerate penetration of 120Hz and differentiated products such as Ultra Slim FPD TVs to maintain ASPs.

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