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Wall Street forecasts 20% IC market dip in '09

Posted: 19 Jan 2009 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:Wall Street forecast? IC market? fab tool sector?

Wall Street has given its 2009 fearless predictions for the IC and fab-tool sectors at the Industry Strategy Symposium.

Tim Arcuri, analyst at Citigroup Investment Research predicts 20 percent slide in IC market and GDP to bottom out in Q2 09. "We will finally see M&A activity in (the semiconductor equipment) space," Acuri said. He added that the first wave of fab-tool orders will come from memory makers.

Goldman Sachs analyst Jim Covello sees 10-15 percent dip in the market while capital spending can drop up to 50 percent. "Increased commodity memory pricing, driven by supply cuts," Covello said. He also forecasts that orders will bottom in Q1 09, with flattish growth in Q2. Covello sees that full order recovery (for equipment) in 2010"and the wave of fab-tool orders will come from memory makers.

Brett Hodess, analyst with Merrill Lynch forecasts that IC market will decline 22 percent, and capital spending to hit as low are 40 percent. GDP will hit the bottom Q4

09. "The change in technology is still going on," he said. Unlike Acuri and Covello, Hodess sees the first wave of fab-tool orders to come from logic makers, namely Intel.

D.A Davidson & Co. analyst Matthew Petkun sees Q2 as bottom for stocks. "Stocks have already felt much of the pain. The downturn will be longer than most." Petkun expects the first wave of fab-tool orders will come from memory makers.

- Mark LaPedus
EE Times





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