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Gartner predicts the future

Posted: 18 Feb 2009 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:vital signs? predictions 2009? IT video? sensors?

What will 2009 bring to technologies and various industries? Gartner Inc. looks into the future and rolls out its annual list of predictions.

For one, the research firm forecasts an uptake in video telepresence in the next three years at the expense though of the travel industry. Gartner analysts predict that high-definition based video meeting solutions will replace 2.1 million airline seats annually, costing the travel and hospitality industry US$3.5 billion per year.

"The challenge of the current economic conditions demands that every organization revisit the need for face-to-face meetings," said Steve Prentice, Gartner Fellow during the annual Gartner Predicts 2009 briefing in Sydney, Australia early this month.

The remaining predictions are:

Virtualization grows
From 2009 to 2013 the server virtualization software market will grow with a CAGR of 28 percent, rising from $1.8 billion to $6.2 billion. According to Gartner, virtualization's impact on the IT industry has been dramatic and will continue to be the catalyst for change in infrastructure and operations until 2013.

Sky high
By 2011, Gartner notes that 30 percent of Consulting and Systems Integration revenue will be delivered via 'cloud computing', a style of computing where massively scaleable IT-enabled capabilities are delivered 'as a service' to external customers using internet technologies. Gartner analysts said organizations should consider cloud-based delivery options from their Consulting and Systems Integration provider as it will enable the delivery of a potentially more cost effective solution.

Dwindling numbers
Twenty-five percent of the top 20 BPO providers will not exist as separate entities by 2012, notes Gartner. According to the research firm, the market will witness a shake out of its competitive landscape over the coming months as providers are swept up in the economic crisis, exposed to loss making contracts on their books and an inability to adapt to standardized business models. As the BPO market moves from adolescence into maturity, the economic crisis comes at a critical time for many providers who will need to improve service levels while taking cost out of the business. Contracts which today rely on significant front-end transition investment and time will likely give way to standardized services utilizing cloud-oriented approaches. Providers, large or small, who cannot adapt to offer the delivery of this style of comprehensive services, or maintain profitability, will increasingly struggle.

Most advantageous
By 2012, successful enterprises will actively encourage and reward more failures in order to find the optimal approach they want more quickly, says Gartner. Unfortunately, for many reasons, most business managers lack the skills to change processes or understand how desired changes might affect others, assets the research firm. Thus, the BPM principle that business managers and process participants can and should be able to change processeseither changing the design, the instance, the data or the executionis very scary to many. This, notes Garner, will not change unless business users are given and encouraged to use a business process "sandbox" a safe place in which to build their skills and test their ideas.

Second life
In 2012, the major PC vendors will recycle only one PC for every five they ship, claims Gartner. With ongoing PC market growth and strong adoption of mobile PCs, the volume of secondary PCs is accelerating. However, the research firm acknowledges that PC recycling is still highly dependent on government legislation and subsidies. Without subsidies, PC recycling is usually not profitable. Vendors have made some progress developing recycling schemes, but the volume of product they collectively take back is a fraction of the total they produce. The IT industry as a whole needs to do more, particularly as the PC is only one type of electronic waste.

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