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Will 2010 be a boom or a double dip?

Posted: 06 Nov 2009 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:2010 electronics forecast? semiconductor? LCD? solar?

The electronics industry is finally recovering but there is still some uncertainty in the market. Some see a boom year in 2010 while some see a double dip.

So what's in store for the rest of this year and 2010? Here are some early predictions from various analysts in different segments:

IC rebound
"As predicted, the Americas region is the first to post growth for semiconductors from the same quarter a year ago, up 8 percent. Worldwide, the third quarter came in down 10 percent from 2008, but up 20 percent sequentially. This puts the market on target with our current prediction of $217 billion, a contraction of 13 percent from 2008. Databeans is also still predicting 2010 revenue will be up 17 percent from this year," said Susie Inouye, an analyst at Databeans Inc.

"The third quarter saw some slowing in the wireless sector towards the tail end, however, it is our view that this segment will continue strongly following some seasonal inactivity during the last couple of months of 2009 and into the first couple of months of 2010. Overall wireless baseband and RF revenue is expected to remain fairly flat at $6.2 billion during the fourth quarter from the same period last year followed be sequential growth in the first and second quarter of 2010 at $6.7 billion then $7.3 billion, respectively," she said.

"In the PC segment, third quarter revenue posted a 28 percent gain from the second quarter driven by higher prices for DRAM. For the year, this market is expected to be down 14 percent followed by a 16 percent increase in 2010 as demand increases for computing devices. Microprocessor revenue was up 25 percent from the second quarter and expected to complete the year at just under $30 billion. DRAM finished the third quarter at just over $6 billion, a 34 percent increase from the second quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to be up sequentially at 4 percent, however this is close to 50 percent higher than revenue in the fourth quarter of 2008, a sobering reminder of how deep a hole the market dipped into," she added.


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