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Forecast: Good, bad signs for 2010 electronics biz

Posted: 28 Dec 2009 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:electronics? marketplace? NAND? DRAM? solar cell?

6. Backend capacity remains tight. C.J. Muse, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said: "Amkor raised its guide for Q4 based on broad-based demand. Focus remains on 1Q10 outlook where we expect better than seasonal guide for Q1 10 led by still tight OSAT capacity."

7. More backend woes. Amir of Lazard Capital Markets said: "Our contacts have indicated that we are seeing back-end capacity tightening and that it could be a challenge for semiconductor companies to increase shipment volumes beyond the current run rate. According to our channel checks, tight Amkor capacity may drive the company to break its delivery commitments. Major clients of Amkor include Toshiba, Numonyx, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Conexant, and Marvell."

8. Solar shakeout. Robert Castellano, president of The Information Network, said: "We forecast that in 2010 as many as 50 percent of the more than 200 solar manufacturers, mired in red ink with current selling prices above $2.00 per watt, may not survive. The freefall has begun."

9. China's vertical integration to solar cost leadership. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst at iSuppli, said: "Yingli and Trina, along with U.S.-based First Solar Inc. represent the most notable success stories in the PV market today. In the price-driven environment of 2009, vertical integration provides the scale and control needed to contain costs, and to provide a competitive edge."

10. Netbooks to slow? John Jacobs, an analyst at DisplaySearch, said: "Mini-notes continue to be a significant piece of the notebook PC pie, in terms of both units and revenue. However, our long-term outlook is that the mini-note share of the notebook PC market has stabilized, and will remain at approximately 20 percent through 2011 before starting to erode. While mini-notes offer lower ASPs and are thinner and lighter than notebook PCs, the performance of larger notebook PCs continues to improve while prices continue to steadily decline, increasing the performance gap while narrowing the price gap. In 2010, DisplaySearch expects the notebook PC market to grow by 16 percent, with higher than average growth for mini-notes and ultra-portable notebook PCs. Growth in the latter segment is expected to be fueled by numerous new 11.6-inch and 12.0-inch products built on CULV platforms and with aggressive, sub-$500 ASPs."

- Mark LaPedus
EE Times

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