Netbook sales to almost double by 2013

ABI Research projects that some 60 million netbooks are expected to ship this year, a figure that will almost double by 2013, worldwide. The market has seen rapid growth, led by ASUS and Acer, since the category was first introduced in 2008, and the trend will start to decline in 2014-2015 according to the research firm.

As half a dozen vendors held a 78 percent share of the market in 2009, shifts are emerging, said principal analyst Jeff Orr. The ASUS Eee PC pioneered the netbook arena, followed by Acer, and these two enjoyed almost equal third of the market in 2008. However, ASUS lost about half of its market share in 2009, said Orr.

The One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative was industrialized by ASUS, yet they haven't been able to keep up with the scale of production that Acer has, and that Acer has practiced better distribution channels in North America, Western Europe, Japan and South Korea. Acer could have been willing to spend more money or probably was in the right place at the right time, in terms of making good product decisions and responding to market needs.

Orr said that Acer will continue to maintain a powerful lead, but there are other vendors that have gained access to the arena. These vendors have increased their market shares in 2009, notably HP, Dell and Lenovo; while Samsung lost a couple of percentage points. He stressed that netbooks are being bought as companion-not replacement – devices in markets which have huge PC penetration and broadband services, home networking and typically a very competitive wireless landscape.

"Over time I expect what will be driving shipments around the world will be the emerging markets," Orr also explains, which don't have widespread broadband and full computers right now. In markets such as China and India, netbooks with a classic clamshell design, due to their price points, will be the first computing devices in homes. Eventually, the cost to deploy home broadband service in developing markets will go down, along with PC prices, led by netbooks.

The latest netbook study by ABI Research humbles some of the myths that exist, Orr said. For example, he mentioned that people understand the value proposition, pointed to the ludicrous theory that the only reason netbooks have flourished is because of the recession and people don't want to spend too much on their computing devices.