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DRAMeXchange forecasts notebook shipment growth

Posted: 19 May 2011 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:notebook? market? shipments?

According to DRAMeXchange, a research department of Trendforce, April worldwide Notebook (NB) shipment declined 13.2 percent month over month (MoM) to 15.4 million units. This is attributed to the delay in shipment from March of Intel's flawed chipset and the quarterly-end high base phenomenon. The research organization predicts that the market momentum will warm up in May and June.

At the Original Design Manufacturer's (ODM's) investor conferences, ODMs in general are optimistic toward the shipment in the second quarter of the year. They are expecting that in this quarter, there will be 10 percent growth of NB shipment quarter on quarter10 percent for Compal, 10C15 percent for Wistron, 10 percent for Inventec and 20C30 percent for Pegatron. DRAMeXchange expects the recovering ODM momentum and strong EMS growth is where there will be an increase in the second quarter of 2011 NB growth to around 9.5 percent.

However, ODMs are still conservative toward 2011 yearend target. Besides the 10 percent year on year from Quanta, Compal revised down their annual target to 48 million units from 55 million while Wistron will aim at 9C11 percent growth rate to 30 million units. Inventec expected the flat or mild increase pattern in 2011. That is, DRAMeXchange forecasts that overall 2011 notebook (netbook included) will likely move 6.5 percent year on year to 206.5 million units.

As for the shipment patterns in the first half and second half of 2011, DRAMeXchange concludes the real channel sales will be the key contributing factor to the second half shipment since most of the second quarter shipment will be regarded as inventory built-up for the back to school sales. Given the anticipation of cannibalization from tablet in the third quarter, the market can expect NB shipment ratio comparing the first half and second half of the year to be closed to 45:55 rather than 40:60.

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