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NAND flash market may find respite in holidays

Posted: 20 Dec 2011 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:NAND flash? contract price? HDD shortage?

DRAMeXchange has updated its forecast for NAND flash market saying that the Q4 holiday peak sales season for electronic products was expected to be weaker. The research arm of TrendForce Corp. has added that as a result of the European debt crisis, and despite falling sharply in Q3, price has continued declining for the current quarter.

As most downstream clients' current inventory levels are sufficient, they are waiting to see the results of year-end holiday season sales before deciding how much inventory to restock for the Chinese New Year holiday by mid-January next year. Therefore, as the market is waiting to observe the year-end holiday season sales performance, 1HDec. NAND flash average contract price trend has been uncertain. As such, it could either remain flat or fall by 5-7 percent.

32Gb NAND flash price

NAND flash average contract price could fall 5-7 percent or could stay flat.

Looking toward 1Q12, the NAND flash market will still be influenced by many factors. First, while Europe has recently found some solutions to resolve and reform some systematic problems of the European sovereign debt crisis, in 1H12 there will still be a period of integrations and adjustments, and some actions of internationally financial and economic cooperation will be necessary before the global economy is back on the road to sustainable recovery in 2H12.

SSD orders failed to up NAND flash market
A previous report has looked into the possibility of rush orders for SSDs to pick the market up. However, weak shipment of PCs, tablets and smartphones has negated the stimulus that SSD purchase has brought about.

Second, although both the temporary HDD shortage caused by the flood disaster in Thailand and ultrabook product unveilings will stimulate system product clients' SSD and mSATA utilization in 1Q12, due to cost consideration the increase will only be significant after 2ynm-class SSD products mature further. Third, after Chinese New Year, new product unveilings will be necessary to partly counteract the slow sales in 1H12's down season.

64Gb NAND flash price

Due to the European debt crisis, NAND flash price has continued to decrease.

Lastly, although in 1H12 most NAND flash suppliers may temporarily suspend plans for capacity expansion or properly control output growth, bit supply will continue to increase as suppliers gradually migrating from the 2xnm-class to the 2ynm-class process in 1H12. Taking all of these factors into account, in the short term the status of the most downstream customers will keep wait-and-see toward the NAND flash market, while NAND flash price is likely to continue on a slight downtrend. Future NAND flash pricing trend will mainly depend on downstream client inventory replenishment after Chinese New Year, as well as certain system clients' preparations for new product unveilings.

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