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2012 semiconductor market up 0.5% sequentially, says report

Posted: 21 Nov 2012 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:semiconductors? International Monetary Fund? worldwide GDP?

According to market analysis firm Semiconductor Intelligence, the market for semiconductors in the fourth quarter of 2012 will be up 0.5 per cent sequentially, giving rise to annual market fall of 2.5 per cent compared with 2011. The market analysis firm has ranked several of the leading chip companies by their guidance for the fourth calendar quarter of 2012.

The observation from Semi Intelligence is that guidance for 4Q12 varies widely, from double digit sequential declines from Texas Instruments and Infineon to a 20 per cent increase from Qualcomm.

 Revenue guidance for 4Q12 versus 3Q12

Figure 1: Revenue guidance for 4Q12 versus 3Q12. Source: Semiconductor Intelligence.

The interpretation is that business and consumer spending on PCs is weak but that spending on smartphones and tablet computers is strong. Inventory adjustments are being made in the supply chain so that the market should rebound quickly when end demand picks up.

Semiconductor Intelligence bases its annual forecast on a model tied to global gross domestic product.

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Figure 2: GDP percentage growth by year and region. Source: Semiconductor Intelligence and IMF.

The latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts worldwide GDP growth of 3.6 per cent in 2013, a slight improvement from 3.3% in 2012. The 0.3 percentage point acceleration in GDP growth from 2012 to 2013 corresponds to a 2013 semiconductor market growth of around 8 to 10 per cent.

The electronics market outlook is mixed. Based on these factors, we at Semiconductor Intelligence are forecasting 9% growth in the semiconductor market in 2013.

- Peter Clarke
??EE Times

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