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Analyst: 2013 is a shaky year for notebooks

Posted: 07 May 2013 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:Ultrabook? notebook market? Haswell? Kirabook?

WitsView, the display research arm of TrendForce, has forecasted that this year, the global notebook shipment will approach 175 million units. In view of the quarterly result, the Q1 notebooks shipment reached 39 million units, dropping 15.5 per cent from Q4 last year and declining 12.2 per cent from the same period last year. Q2 is supported by the lower Q1 basis period and new models launched by some brands, but Haswell platform's new models showcased in June will be the quad-core high-end models and see limited market acceptance, WitsView's forecast for the Q2 shipment increase is only around 5-7 per cent QoQ, added the market research firm.

The ratio between the shipments in H1 and 1H13 is projected at 46:54 because the notebooks using Intel's Haswell platform, or brands' Ultrabook/Ultra-like notebooks touting for more appealing prices, or the strongly-promoted low-priced touch notebooks all plan to attack the market in 2H13.

WitsView said the 2013 notebooks market sees constrained growth momentum due to the following reasons: 1. the uncertainties in the global political and economic outlook cause negative influences to the market; 2. large-sized smartphones and low-priced tablets remain the top choices for consumers; 3. the Window 8 launch doesn't stir consumers' desire to purchase, or the demand for a new OS is much weaker than that for a new and stylish product; 4. both the Ultrabook and the touch notebooks are still expensive.

More products of the 11.6in and the 13.3in will hit the market this year. As Microsoft has announced the 50 per cent discount on the OS of the under 11.6in notebooks, the 11.6in-models without high resolution and wide-viewing angle, featuring the touch function, and priced under $400 become the promotion focus for brands. The 13.3in size, lighter than the 14in and the 15.6in, is more suitable for document processing than the 11.6in. In addition, the 13.3in segment has been dominated by Apple, while other brands held small proportions, hence, the 13.3in will be the best choice for other brands to launch Ultrabook.

HD remains the mainstream, but the beyond FHD products accelerate growth this year. The 13.3in Kirabook by Toshiba is equipped with the IPS panel and the 2560x1440 resolution, and the ppi is as high as 220, comparable with Apple's 13.3in (2560x1600) of 226 ppi. More brands will expectedly showcase similar high-end models to appeal to specific consumers. WitsView added that the penetration rate for the FHD panels and above will reach 13-15 per cent, and the touch notebooks penetration rate will attain as high as 11-13 per cent.

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