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Battery technologies forecasted to reach $896M by 2020

Posted: 29 Oct 2013 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:Lux Research? lithium-ion technologies? UPS? battery?

Lux Research recently forecasted that emerging battery technologies used in the backup and UPS markets are poised for a six-fold growth, from $143 million in 2013 to $896 million in 2020.

The report, titled 'Backup and UPS: Stable Growth in the Unstable Stationary Storage Markets,' suggests that lithium-ion technologies are leading the growth as storage developers shift focus in the face of uncertainty in the emerging grid storage market.

According to Lux, Li-ion batteries will account for a bulk of this market, reaching $553 million in 2020, and additionally restoring demand-supply balance in the Li-ion market. The medical, commercial and datacenter operators are the major users of the conventional backup and UPS markets, which have a global installation base of 800GW, or 15 per cent of global peak consumption.

"Energy storage developers continue to pump blood, sweat, tears, and cash into emerging markets for energy storage. However, the wisest developers have recently focused efforts on the mature backup and UPS markets for stable revenues," said Steven Minnihan, Lux Research Senior Analyst and the lead author of the report titled, "Backup and UPS: Stable Growth in the Unstable Stationary Storage Markets."

"The Li-ion chemistry offers enhanced life and power density over incumbent lead acid systems, justifying higher capital expenditure. This market growth carries an additional payoff in bringing the global demand for stationary Li-ion systems in line with forecasted supply, ending years of glut".

storage tech

Figure 1: Emerging storage technologies grow to $896 million in large, stable stationary markets.

Lux Research analysts studied the broader impact of the battery technologies on the global stationary storage market. The researchers concluded that Li-ion offers modest cuts in TCO. As lithium-ion developers struggle to find large-volume customers, the UPS and backup markets offer a chance for modest, steady growth. The sector will add 12.5 per cent to global demand for stationary lithium-ion systems. The Li-ion developers, in return, offer a modest 4 per cent to 11 per cent reduction in total cost of ownership over competing lead acid.

Lux's researchers also found that sodium nickel chloride battery market will grow. The sodium nickel chloride battery, which offers significant cost benefits for high-use applications on account of its low capital cost and significant energy capacity, will grow to $116 million in the backup market in 2020. On the other hand, power-dense technologies including flywheels and ultracapacitors will not find a home in UPS because of their low energy density and prohibitive cost.

The researchers also saw that End to Li-ion glut in sight. Of the 14GWh of forecasted Li-ion production in 2017, only 5GWh will target stationary applications, thanks to demand from the consumer and mobile sectors. This will help strike a delicate balance between global supply and demand, ending years of oversupply and eroding margins.

- Paul Buckley
??EE Times

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