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1 trillion units of semicon shipments forecast for 2018

Posted: 10 Mar 2016 ?? ?Print Version ?Bookmark and Share

Keywords:semiconductors? integrated circuits? shipments? o-s-d?

Market research firm IC Insights Inc has projected a total of 1 trillion semiconductors for shipment in 2018. IC Insight's 2016 edition of McClean Report stated that 1.02 trillion devices are anticipated to rise from 886.7 million units in 2016 and about 950 billion units in 2017.

The total includes all semiconductors, including integrated circuits and opto-sensor-discrete (O-S-D) devices.

Topping the 1 trillion mark in 2018 would represent an impressive 9 per cent compound annual growth rate over the past 40 years, from 32.8 billion shipments in 1978, according to IC Insights. The firm says the growth "demonstrates how increasingly dependent on semiconductors the world has become."

The single largest growth year for semiconductor shipments over the 40-year timespan was 1984, when unit shipments increased by 34 per cent, IC Insights said. The largest decline came in 2001, when shipments declined by 19 per cent in the wake of the dot-com bubble bust, the firm said.

semicon graph

Figure 1: Semiconductor unit shipments are forecast to climb to 1.02 trillion devices in 2018 from 32.6 billion in 1978.

Unit shipments fell in 2008 and 2009 in the midst of global financial recession, the only period on record when units declined in consecutive years, IC Insights (Scottsdale, Ariz.) said.

Afterward, chip unit shipments surged by 25 per cent in 2010, the second-highest growth rate since 1978, IC Insights said.

O-S-D devices graph

Figure 2: O-S-D devices accounted for 72% of total semiconductor units in 2015.

The percentage of OSD devices within the broader semiconductor category has remained fairly constant over the past 40 years despite advances in ICs. In 1980, OSD accounted for 78 per cent of all semiconductor shipments will ICs accounted for 22 per cent. Thirty-five years later, in 2015, OSD devices accounted for 72% of total semiconductor shipments, compared with 28% for ICs, according to IC Insights.

IC Insights' forecast

Figure 3: IC Insights' forecast of the OSD and IC product categories with largest unit growth rates forecast for 2016.

- Dylan McGrath
??EE Times

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